HOBALL 筆記簿

May 11, 2009

羅耕 – 港交所究竟值幾多?

Filed under: 投機投資 — Tags: , , , — hoball @ 10:14 am

信報財經新聞 | 2008-08-20
羅 耕

港交所究竟值幾多?

港交所(388)上周跌穿100元,一眾目標價亦降至90、80、70元……。在下雖不懂個別股份,但亦約略知道該所盈利與港股成交呈正比。大行報告會告訴你多少成交下,相對應的港交所股價。怎計?港交所自2000年中上市起的收市價及港股成交不難找,網上可以免費下載。問題是,兩者呈怎麼樣的正比?經測試後,應是線性正比【表】。

有了具體關係,自然有數可計【圖】。近日成交介乎500到700餘億元,100元股價實相對應640億元成交;反過來說,600億元成交應相對應94元,而500億元則對應78元,400億元對應62元。按月前在下拙文指恒指與成交開七次方成正比,600、500及400億元成交應分別對應209xx、199xx及187xx點恒指。單憑某君的港交所目標價,其實已可推算出其心目中的恒指目標價。

Price = 0.1588 transaction -1.1016388

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