HOBALL 筆記簿

November 7, 2009

joefanny說通漲

Filed under: 政治 經濟 — Tags: , — hoball @ 1:00 pm

原文:http://www.uwants.com/viewthread.php?tid=8348601&page=127#pid129288567

joefanny 發表於 2009-11-5 08:08 PM

其實通賬是一樣很奇怪很難捉摸的東西,力史上有紀錄詳細記載的大約有12次,原因大致都是一樣,貨幣供應過剩或物資短缺,或兩者一起出現,貨幣供應過剩的元凶大多數是政府濫發鈔票(如1923的德國),或引入過多的貨幣(如16世紀的西班牙,當時從南美引入大量黃金及白銀)。供應多到甚麼程度才會出現通賬?物資短缺到甚麼程度才會出現通賬?到現在仍然沒有一套可清楚預測的方程式,所以這才令很多經濟學家非常害怕。
不可預測,因為每個時代及每個國家的經濟結構都不同。通賬為何物?簡單講就是一切通貨,糧食、人工、土地價格…….內容很多,所以不同時代及國家,通賬出現的軌跡亦不同。
舉個例例子,14世紀的通賬,當時歐洲黑死病横行,令歐洲1/3人口消失,因為死人太多,糧食供應變得過剩,初期,物價是下跌的,即是通縮,但到黑死病完結後的兩年,由於人口大減,農民工資突然飛升,工資上升,反過來增加生產成本,結果在工資帶動下,物價急速上升,引發大通賬。
另一個例子是美國獨立戰爭後的通賬,當時政府因打仗,國庫空虛,大印銀紙,初期通賬不算明顯,只集中在一些非食品類,如羊毛及皮革,食品價格(主要是玉米)更曾出現過短暫通縮,但到1779年的10月後,食品卻突然急升,而食品中,也不是所有東西一齊升,像牛肉就反而因為不是人人必需而跌。
中國民國時通賬一樣是很奇特,起初都不是很勁,但到了1947年,隨住政府強徵民間糧食及發行新貨幣,突然在一年內急升600萬倍。

對上一次較明顯的通賬是1975年至1980(其實算不上超級通賬),老美為了支持金本位消失後的美匯,炒高石油價格400%(貨幣戰爭有講),結果這次是石油帶動下引發通賬。當然,引火者自已都受傷,很多企業破產,且金價急升。
由此可見,通賬如何運行,很受到政府左右,我地只知出現時,有好多種不同方式,有時是工資先升,有時是燃料先升,有時是土地………致於糧食或基本物資,唔一定一開始就有,有時更會倒跌。
但出現之時,通常很突如其來,令人操手不及,因為通賬還涉人民心理問題,例如對物價的看法,或貨幣信任程度得,就像去年的東X銀行擠提一樣,是天時地利人和,再加一條導火線,就此出現,所以很難預測。
而到出現之時,又會很難消失,很多人以為加息就可解決,當時老美將利息由幾%加到近20%都係摸著石頭過河,而人類在脫離金本位下的明顯通賬也只有一兩次咁大把,70年後出世的新一代更一點印像都冇,所以對付通賬的經驗實在很少,研究下次來時,係唔係一定加息到18%就會消失,定係要像1923年德國咁加到日息30%仍然阻止唔到通賬,沒有一個經濟學家敢講。

keinwell 發表於 2009-11-5 09:24 PM

This time our system has "many more swimming pools" than any other time. The FX market, the bond market, the stock market, real estate market, commodity future market, the MBS, CDO, CDS, IRS…., quadrillions of $. But all these are not included in CPI. Ben prints money like a guy pouring water at the top of the mountain. The water may go down several ways. And many are not directly injected into the CPI pool that is at the foot of the mountain.
So now, the water has come out and maybe in the middle of the process. Stock, real estate reinflated, commodity begins to rally while the bond tries to maintain its high level (low yield), but it can’t hold for long. Greenspan said that usually it will be 3.5 years for the water to flow from the top of the mountain to its foot. So that would be 2007.09~2008.09 + 3.5yrs -> 2011.03~2012.03
But that is normal case. And this time the injected water is unprecedented. And the market already knows the possible future. So people won’t wait 3.5 yrs and then take action.
IMHO, the best benchmark now is US 30yrs T-bond yield. If fed doesn’t buy it any more or even sell it, as Geithner needs to sell more of it to increase the average rollover time, the yield will skyrocket, which means THE END OF THE BULL MARKET FOR TREASURY SINCE 1982 (almost 30 yrs, wow ? ) . As the yield goes to 15% or more, it will lead to a gold mania
If that yield goes above 5%, commercial real estate together with Alt-A & option ARM (these two are to be doomed since Jan. 2010) will give US a second blow.
And if that happens and ben has to re-monetize the debt, dollar will completely collapse because nobody will trust fed once more.
Only the crash of paper gold can give physical gold price a 100x impact. What if others rush in ?

s

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